CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-07-28T02:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32269/-1
CME Note: Full halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and towards the east in STEREO A COR2. The source is likely the M9.9 flare peaking at 2024-07-28T01:57Z from AR 3766 and/or the M7.8 flare directly preceding it from the same region. Dimming and EUV wave visible in SDO AIA 193 and 335 and GOES SUVI 284, post-eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 131/171/193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. Arrival signature is characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from 9nT to approx. 16nT, preceded by a smaller increase from 6nT to 9nT starting at 2024-07-31T10:40Z and accompanied by a sharp increase in solar wind speed from approx. 400 km/s to over 470 km/s, as well as sharp increase in solar wind density to over 10p/cc. This is possibly a combined arrival of this CME and multiple other Earth-directed CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-31T13:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-30T20:04Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 920.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 545.160 Acceleration: 0.767779 Duration in seconds: 236435.34 Duration in days: 2.7365201 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 0.77 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 726.7 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 30/07/2024 Time: 20:04 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 73.07 hour(s)
Difference: 17.70 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-07-28T12:42Z
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